eurozone Archives - Kelly Rahill Accountants

Euro zone business activity close to stagnation despite services bounce – PMI

Euro zone business activity remained close to stagnation at the end of last year, a survey showed today, as an upturn in services activity only partially offset a continued decline in the bloc’s manufacturing industry. 

IHS Markit’s final euro zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), seen as a good indicator of economic health, nudged up to 50.9 in December from November’s 50.6. 

That beat a preliminary estimate which suggested no change from the previous month but remained close to the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. 

“Another month of subdued business activity in December rounded off the euro zone’s worst quarter since 2013.

“The PMI data suggest the euro area will struggle to have grown by more than 0.1% in the closing three months of 2019,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit.

That is worse than the 0.2% growth predicted in a December Reuters poll. 

A PMI for the bloc’s dominant services industry bounced to 52.8 from November’s 51.9, above a preliminary reading of 52.4. 

But a manufacturing PMI out last week showed factory activity contracted for an 11th month in a row in December. 

The upturn in services meant firms were at their most optimistic about the year ahead since May. A composite future output PMI jumped to 59.4 from 57.9. 

Indicating services activity may remain resilient, firms in the sector were unable to match demand last month for the first time since July. The backlogs of work index climbed to 51 from 49.7.

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Euro zone growth curbed by trade, retail sales slowdown

The euro zone economy grew at a modest pace in the third quarter with a negative impact from trade, while retail sales fell at their sharpest rate this year in October, data showed today. 

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the euro zone was up 0.2% in the three months from July to September.

This was the same figure as the flash estimate released in October and unchanged from the second quarter. 

Retail sales in the euro zone in October fell by 0.6%, double the amount expected in a Reuters poll, and were up a modest 1.4% year-on-year. The monthly decline was the steepest fall of 2019. 

The data confirmed a sombre outlook for the single currency bloc, which is facing threats and uncertainty over Brexit and rising global trade conflicts. 

Britain had been set to exit the European Union at the end of October, a deadline since pushed back until the end of January. 

In trade, the US outlined the first phase of a deal to end its conflict war with China in October, but the two are still arguing about the details. 

Year-on-year, euro zone expansion was 1.2%, also the same figure as in the second quarter of the year. 

The bloc’s largest and third largest economies, Germany and Italy, grew by just 0.1% during the quarter, while in France, the second largest economy, growth was 0.3%. 

Household spending was the strongest overall contributor, boosting euro zone growth by 0.3% percentage points, followed by government spending and capital investment at 0.1 points.

However, the contributions of trade and of inventory changes were negative, in the case of trade for a second consecutive quarter. 

In the October retail sales figures, non-food sales declined, particularly online and mail order sales, although these tend to pick up in November and December ahead of the Christmas period. 

Eurostat also said that the growth of employment in the euro zone slowed in the third quarter to 0.1% from 0.2% in the second quarter. 

Year-on-year the figure was also softer at 0.9% from 1.2% previously.

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Euro zone business growth near-stagnant, but some hopeful signs evident – PMI

Euro zone business activity stayed near stall speed last month, with manufacturing seemingly continuing to act as a drag on the bloc’s dominant services industry as well as the economy as a whole. 

Despite some optimistic signs in today’s survey, that picture is likely to disappoint policymakers at the European Central Bank.

In September, the ECB relaunched a €2.6 trillion asset purchase programme designed to stimulate growth and inflation. 

IHS Markit’s final euro zone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of economic health, held steady last month at October’s 50.6. 

That beat a preliminary estimate of 50.3 but remains uncomfortably close to the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. 

The headline figure “still indicates a near-stagnant economy,” said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit. 

The data pointed to fourth quarter GDP growth of 0.1%, with manufacturing continuing to act as a major drag. 

“Worryingly, the service sector is also on course for its weakest quarterly expansion for five years, hinting strongly that the slowdown continues to spread,” he said. 

A Reuters poll last month had predicted growth of 0.2% this quarter. 

Offering glimmers of hope, an index measuring demand climbed to the breakeven mark having spent two months below it, firms increased the pace of hiring and optimism was at a four-month high.

The new business index was 50 compared to October’s 49.6.

“New orders have not shown any growth since August, underscoring the recent weakness of demand, with sharply declining orders for manufactured goods accompanied by substantially weaker gains of new business into the service sector,” Chris Williamson said. 

Overall services industry activity stuttered. Its PMI dipped to 51.9 from 52.2, although edging above a 51.5 flash reading. 

Still, reflecting some level of increased optimism, firms increased headcount at a faster rate. The employment index nudged up to 53.2 from 53. 

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Euro zone economy continues steady growth in third quarter

The euro zone economy continued to grow at a modest pace in the third quarter as expected, data from the EU statistics office showed today, as Germany narrowly escaped a technical recession and other big economies expanded. 

Eurostat said gross domestic product in the 19 countries sharing the euro increased 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter for a 1.2% year-on-year gain. 

The quarterly expansion was in line with a Eurostat preliminary flash estimate earlier this month and market expectations, although the previous year-on-year figure was 1.1%. 

Germany, the euro zone’s biggest economy, grew 0.1% in the third quarter after a -0.2% contraction in the previous three months, so avoiding a technical recession. 

France, the second biggest economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter against the previous three months and the third biggest Italy expanded 0.1%. 

Spain and the Netherlands, the fourth and fifth biggest economies of the bloc, each grew by 0.4%.

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Euro zone business activity stagnates as Draghi bows out

Euro zone business activity stagnated in October as demand withered, according to a downbeat survey published today just hours before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi makes his swansong appearance. 

The ECB last month cut its deposit rate deeper into negative territory and said it would revive its bond-buying programme indefinitely to cut borrowing costs and stimulate investment and growth in the euro zone. 

But inflation in the euro zone still languishes at less than half the ECB’s target and October’s preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings add weight to fears the economic outlook is darkening once again. 

IHS Markit’s flash composite PMI, seen as a good guide to economic health, was 50.2, just above September’s more than six-year low final reading of 50.1.

But it was still perilously close to the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction and below expectations in a Reuters poll for 50.3. 

Germany’s export-dependent manufacturing sector remained in contraction this month, earlier data showed, suggesting a third-quarter slowdown in Europe’s largest economy could stretch into the closing months of the year. 

French activity picked up more than expected, however, boosted mainly by a firmer service sector. 

Meanwhile, Norway’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged today, as predicted, as did Sweden’s. 

But the Riksbank surprised many by saying it expected to tighten policy in December, even though the economy is slowing more sharply than previously expected. 

IHS Markit said the euro zone PMIs indicated economic growth of just under 0.1% this quarter, below the 0.2% predicted in a Reuters poll last week. 

Giving little hope for a turnaround anytime soon, an index measuring new business rose only slightly to 49.1 from 48.7, chalking up its second month below the breakeven mark. 

A PMI for the bloc’s dominant service industry nudged up to 51.8 from September’s 51.6, which had been its lowest reading since the start of this year. Economists had expected 51.9. 

With the survey painting a gloomy picture, optimism among services firms was at its weakest since mid-2013. The business expectations index sank to 56.5 from 58.6. 

Manufacturers also had a bad October and activity contracted for a ninth month in a row, the PMI showed. 

It held steady at September’s 45.7, a low not seen in seven years and missing the median expectation for 46.

The manufacturing output index, which feeds into the composite PMI, was 46.2, just pipping last month’s 46.1 but its ninth sub-50 reading in a row. 

October’s weak results were despite factory gate prices falling for a fourth month. The output prices index was 48.9 compared to September’s 48.6.

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Euro zone business growth halts as Germany goes into reverse

Euro zone business growth halts as Germany goes into reverse

Euro zone business growth stalled this month, dragged down by shrinking activity in powerhouse Germany, where a manufacturing recession deepened unexpectedly.

Today’s downbeat survey results come less than two weeks after the European Central Bank pledged indefinite stimulus to revive the 19-country currency bloc’s ailing economy.

IHS Markit’s Euro Zone Composite Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), seen as a good guide to economic health, suggested support for stuttering activity is needed.

It sank to 50.4 in September from 51.9 in August and was below all forecasts in a Reuters poll that had predicted a reading of 51.9.

That was just above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and was its lowest since mid-2013.

The euro zone economy expanded 0.2% in the second quarter, official data showed last month, and the average PMI for this quarter suggests growth could now be weaker.

Analysts said that with the euro zone’s manufacturing sector in the doldrums and services activity starting to lose pace, there is little reason to think that GDP growth will pick up as the ECB and the consensus forecasts assume.

The ECB trimmed its deposit rate further into negative territory on September 12 and promised bond purchases with no end-date to push borrowing costs even lower.

These marked the bank’s last big policy moves under outgoing chief Mario Draghi, who leaves next month.

Earlier figures from Germany, Europe’s largest economy, showed private sector activity shrank for the first time in six and a half years as a manufacturing recession deepened unexpectedly and growth in the service sector lost momentum.

While there are no signs of a turnaround yet, the German Economy Ministry said earlier this month that the country was not facing a bigger downturn or a pronounced recession after contracting slightly in the second quarter.

But several institutes have said the economy would slide into recession this quarter.

In France, the bloc’s second-biggest economy and the only other member for which flash numbers are published, growth slowed unexpectedly.

A flash services PMI for the bloc fell to 52 from 53.5, below all forecasts in a Reuters poll, while a manufacturing index fell to 45.6 from 47, a low not seen since October 2012.

The Reuters poll had predicted 53.3 for services and 47.3 for manufacturing.

Indicating there will not be much improvement soon, a services new business index dropped to 50.9 from 52.3 and a manufacturing new orders index fell to 43.1 from 45.9, a more than seven-year low.

But overall optimism picked up a touch from August’s six-year low. The future output index nudged up to 55.7 from 55.4.

After easing policy this month some economists think the ECB will be forced to go further and Monday’s weak readings will do nothing to dissuade them.

Analysts said the weak data support expectations that the ECB will have to ease monetary policy again in December.

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Euro zone inflation remains low

Euro zone inflation remains low

Euro zone inflation remained low at 1% in August, well below the European Central Bank’s target, bolstering market expectations that the bank will further ease monetary policy next month.

The European Union’s statistics office said that inflation in the 19 countries sharing the euro was unchanged from the July reading, in line with expectations in a Reuters poll.

The rates of price increases in July and August are the lowest since November 2016, well below the ECB’s inflation target of below, but close to, 2% despite years of unprecedented monetary stimulus through rate cuts and trillions of euros of bond purchases.

Economists said the latest economic data strengthened the case for further loosening monetary policy.

“There is nothing in today’s data releases to change the minds of ECB policy makers meeting the week after next: we still expect them to cut the deposit rate from -0.4% to -0.5% and to provide further strong hints that more QE is on the way,” Capital Economics’ Andrew Kenningham wrote in a note.

The ECB’s Governing Council holds its next monetary policy meeting on September 12 and has all but promised a stimulus package, with economic growth faltering amid a global trade war and Germany’s manufacturing sector already in recession.

Market expectations are that it will carry out several interest rate cuts in the coming year, along with a fresh round of bond purchases, commonly known as quantitative easing.

The ECB’s measures are also set to include a way to compensate commercial banks for the side effects of negative interest rates.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile unprocessed food and energy and which the ECB scrutinises in policy decisions, was steady at 1.1% in August.

The even narrower measure excluding also alcohol and tobacco prices that many market economists look at was unchanged at 0.9%.

Eurostat’s flash estimate for the month does not include a monthly calculation.

The low overall level of inflation strengthens the case for a package of ECB measures to support the economy and faster inflation.

The ECB’s problem is that inflation has undershot its target since 2013 despite a lengthy economic boom, which saw the creation of over 10 million jobs.

Such an expansion should have fuelled inflation already but hidden slack in the labour market, the growing share of services in the economy and the population’s ageing, all kept a lid on price growth.

While the bank has argued that inflation would eventually come, it has already exhausted much of its fire power and now faces economic turbulence with a relatively depleted arsenal that could force it to once again to reinvent its policy toolkit.

The ECB is also facing the added difficulty that much of the current economic weakness is due to external factors, such as Brexit, a trade war and China’s own slowdown, against which monetary policy is largely ineffective.

While the ECB is unlikely to admit that the current troubles are outside its control, economists say that the best it can hope for is to prop up confidence and preserve already favourable financing conditions.

Separately, the jobless rate in the euro zone was 7.5% in July, unchanged compared to a month earlier, Eurostat data showed.

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Eurozone growth halves in second quarter of 2019

Eurozone growth halves in second quarter of 2019

Eurozone economic growth halved in the April-June period and inflation slowed sharply in July even though the unemployment rate fell to its lowest in 11 years, data from the European Union’s statistics office has shown.

Eurostat’s preliminary flash estimate of gross domestic product growth in the 19 countries sharing the euro showed the economy expanding 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, down from 0.4% in the previous three months, as expected by economists.

Growth in the euro area therefore returned to the anaemic rates seen in the third and fourth quarters of last year.

Year-on-year, euro zone GDP growth was 1.1%, slowing from 1.2% in the January-March period.

The slower growth was reflected in decelerating consumer price growth; Eurostat’s flash estimate showed year-on-year inflation in July was 1.1%, down from 1.3% in June, as expected by economists.

The headline inflation rate was the lowest reading in 17 months.

The slowing inflation rate is likely to further strengthen market expectations that the European Central Bank, which wants to keep inflation below, but close to 2%, will further loosen monetary policy in September.

Core inflation, which strips out the volatile components of unprocessed food and energy and which the ECB closely looks at in policy decisions, also fell to 1.1% in July from 1.3% in June.

The even more narrow measure excluding also alcohol and tobacco prices that many market economists look at was down to 0.9% from 1.1%.

The slowing price growth comes despite unemployment in the euro zone hitting an 11-year low of 7.5% of the workforce in June, Eurostat data showed.

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Germany, Italy drive euro zone economic sentiment down to 3-year low

Germany, Italy drive euro zone economic sentiment down to 3-year low

Euro zone economic sentiment dropped to its lowest point in nearly three years in June as confidence fell markedly in the bloc’s largest economies – Germany and Italy – European Commission data show.

The Commission said that its main indicator of economic confidence dropped to 103.3 points in June from 105.2 a month earlier, reaching its lowest level since August 2016.

June’s large fall capped a quarter in which sentiment dropped in each month, except May, sending another stark warning over the health of the euro zone economy which is grappling with weak growth and low inflation.

The fall was also bigger than market forecasts of a fall to 104.6.

The largest falls in confidence were recorded in Germany, the biggest economy of the bloc, and Italy, its third major economic power, the data showed.

The indicator in Germany fell by 2.9 points, and in Italy by 1.5 points. Confidence decreased also in France, the Netherlands and Spain.

Sentiment in the industry sector plunged by 2.7 points, the largest drop in about eight years, equalled only by a similar fall in April, the Commission said, as the export-driven sector suffers from global trade tensions.

Business managers were also pessimistic about the euro zone’s services sector, which posted a drop of 1.1 points.

Consumer confidence went down by 0.7 points, but did not affect sentiment in the retail trade sector, which instead rose by a point.

In a separate release, the Commission said that its business climate indicator, which helps point to the phase of the business cycle, declined to 0.17 in June from 0.30 in May for its fourth consecutive monthly drop.

Economists polled by Reuters had predicted a more limited fall to 0.23.

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Euro zone inflation slowed to one-year low in May, Eurostat confirms

Euro zone inflation slowed to one-year low in May, Eurostat confirms

Inflation in the euro zone slowed to 1.2% in May, the lowest rate in more than a year, as price growth in the energy and services sectors slackened.

This is according to the European Union statistics agency, Eurostat, as it confirmed its earlier estimates.

The final data is bad news for the European Central Bank, which targets a rate below but close to 2% and has promised further action if inflation does not pick up.

Eurostat said prices in the 19-country currency bloc went up by 1.2% on the year, slowing from 1.7% in April.

It was the lowest growth rate since April 2018 when inflation was also recorded at 1.2%.

On the month, prices were nearly stable, posting a 0.1% increase that was below market forecasts of a 0.2% rise, new data released today by Eurostat showed.

Prices slowed despite a record increase in euro zone wage costs in the first quarter of the year.

The apparent inconsistency could partly be explained by the fact that higher wage costs for firms do not always translate into more cash for consumers as payroll taxes remain high in the bloc.

The ECB will need to ease policy again, possibly through new rate cuts or asset purchases, if inflation does not head back to its target, ECB President Mario Draghi said earlier today.

Eurostat confirmed that the core inflation measure the ECB looks at in policy decisions, which excludes the volatile components of food and energy, stood at 1% in May compared to 1.4% in April.

A narrower indicator, which also excludes alcohol and tobacco prices, slowed to 0.8% in May from 1.3% in the previous month, confirming earlier estimates.

Inflation was mostly dragged down by energy prices which increased 3.8% in May, after a 5.3% rise in April.

Inflation in the services sector, the largest in the euro zone economy, nearly halved to 1% from 1.9% in April, today’s figures show.

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